I'll know Tuesday if I should buy stocks

My friend Ania twittered recently that she bought her first stock. I thought, Good for her. I also got a little jealous because I hadn't done that yet (except for the ol' 401k). Given the bargain price of so many stocks, it's an enticing time to start investing. My plan has been to see where I sit at the end of the year and consider investing a bit of money in a few carefully selected stocks.

A thought occurred to me today, though, that says I'll probably know if I want to invest after the election on Tuesday. Barack Obama joked at one of the debates, in response to John McCain noting that Obama plans to raise capital gains tax, that no one was going to have capital gains this year. Cute, and true. For people who bought high, they probably won't have capital gains for a while. But for those of buying now, capital gains are going to come quickly if the stock market begins to rebound.

So should I put my money into a stock market when I know that, if I want to pull it out in a few years, I'm going to get hit with the government taking an even bigger portion than they already do? And for those who make more than $250,000 a year, the ones who would have to pay whatever the new top rate is (possibly as high as 28%, versus 15% now) and actually have the money to invest, won't this create either a disincentive for investment or a disincentive to trade?

By the way, if those realizing gains are not actively trading but instead sit on their gains to wait for a more favorable tax climate, the government isn't going to get the tax revenue anyway. And then you have to wonder where an Obama administration will go looking for funds...

Today's news...oh the humanity

Bush admin and Congress team up to put taxpayers on the hook for other people's mistakes. The Wall Street Journal notes, "President George W. Bush warned that a "significant" amount of taxpayer funds will be put at risk with the government's plan to bolster shaky markets." At least he's being honest.

Voters would rather watch football with Obama. Women prefer Obama, likely assuming he wouldn't be watching the football game either. Hope he'll bring chip in for the arugula tray.

"Redistribution of wealth - it's the American way!" - Joe Biden

Economy troubles force...FORCE...people to cook for themselves. Cookbooks appear on shelfs as though guided by some invisible hand...

The 2000 electin all over again?

Lacking strong credentials in foreign policy and defense, the presidential candidate has picked a senior Senator as a running mate who is recognized on both sides of the aisle as being strong in these areas and keen on protecting America's interests. The VP pick comes from a sparesely populated state, quite the opposite of the presidental candidate's own home state. The VP pick will appeal well to the more moderate base of the party. Plus, he's older, a nice counterbalance to the youth and inexperience at the top of the ticket.

Yes, friends, this is change we can believe in, a new way of doing things, a real change from the old guard.

Populism and the election

The biggest threat to America? Populism, according to David Strom in a new article on Townhall.

Government policies have proven time and again capable of slowing economic growth, but with few exceptions they have never proven capable of stimulating the economy in the long term. Even policies that economic conservatives think of as "pro-growth," such as deregulation, tax cuts and reducing trade barriers are more accurately thought of as the removal of government-created barriers to growth than actual government stimulants to economic activity.

"The economy," simply put, is not manageable like a machine. It is dynamic, driven by the choices, actions, and desires of over 300 million Americans, and ultimately the billions of people around the world. However frustrating it is to think that our fortunes are hostage to the actions of people across the globe, there is almost nothing positive the government can do to change that fact. We all live on the same planet and are tapping into the same resources to better our lives. It is the inventiveness of individuals and firms that shape those resources into useful products and services that truly make up the economy.

That's a great assessment. Real People make the economy go, not government. We forget that pretty easily - and candidates forget it real fast.

Another reason the GOP brand is so tarnished

Jim Wooten of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has a nice post today on AJC.com decrying Georgia's Republicans in the state House to lead like Republicans. The Speaker and the Governor are both playing with taxes, and not necessarily in beneficial ways. He very nicely sums up how me and many others are feeling:

The great frustration with the new majority under the Gold Dome is that, with rare exception — tort reform and special education vouchers, for example — they are largely indistinguishable from the Democrats who preceded them. The semantics game on taxes is right out of the Democratic playbook.

It was only a few years ago that Republicans climbed down power in Georgia after more than 140 years of Democrats holding all the reigns of power. Yet, just like we saw on the national level, the Republicans have squandered their majority. And unlike at the national level, where at least the GOP started with a clear set of goals, Glenn Richardson and the Republicans never really knew what they wanted to get accomplished. Wooten's assessment matches my own:

What this majority really needs to do is develop an agenda based on the state’s transportation, education, medical and water objectives — and then determine priorities and funding requirements. If a tax increase is warranted — and it may be — Perdue, Richardson and Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle should make the case, and explain to Georgians what we’re getting and why the additional money is needed.

Instead, we get tax shifts and new tax targets and tax semantics.

This frustration is something the GOP is going to have to deal with at the federal level and in many states during the 2008 election. Republicans are tired of unprincipled leadership from their own party. I don't think they'll go vote for Democrats, but I do wonder if they'll vote at all, and that's just as dangerous.

GOP - get it together. Limit spending, hold or cut taxes, find (and sell!) some creative approaches to social issues like health care, live your values instead of just claiming them, and rebuild this party.

Scenes from an Advance

I stopped by the Virginia Republican Advance, a sort of mini-convention the party holds every year. It's just like a convention, and brings together all the same types of folks you'd expect at a convention. I only went to drop in on an acquaintance who's considering a bid for Congress, and as it was being held only a few blocks from my house, I figured I didn't have much of an excuse to not drop by.

The meat of my political experience is in Georgia, and so I know the Georgia political hacks and players, but I know very very few of the ones in Virginia, and none of the ones I knew were there last night. Without anyone to seek out except the candidate, I got stuck in a conversation with a Ron Paul supporter. He supports him because of the war, and I think that's about it. I tried to engage on government spending, but that didn't go very far. He told me as a second choice, he'd go with Fred Thompson.

"Yeah, Fred Thompson's nice," I said, "in that way that sitting by a pond is nice - it looks pretty but it's too shallow to swim in."

We didn't talk much after that.

Except for not knowing anyone, it's interesting to see that the politicos of Virginia are really just like the politicos of Georgia when they get together. There are the overzealous but personally insecure young campaign workers, the College Republicans who think they're the coolest for being there, even when they're just crowding the elevator and sending it to the wrong floor. There are the Republican women with fancy elephant brooches, and the old man in the funny outfit that always gets noticed and is as pleased as punch to be there. There are the candidates, with charm oozing from their pores, and stray county party leaders, forcing out some synthetic variation of charm.

Yet despite all that, there's an energy in the air that brings back memories of excitement tinged with exhaustion and hope. The energy of politics, of The Campaign, of winning.

I came home and reported to the wife that it was just awful. Yet I know that my eye-rolling exasperation with the event wasn't fair. I would have eaten it up if I were in Georgia - even though I'd probably still do the same amount of exasperated eye rolling. Same idiosyncratic people. Same energy. Shared party. Shared goals.

Voters choose fiscal restrain in New Jersey

A recent ballot measure in New Jersey asked voters whether they wanted to approve $450 million dollars in bonds to fund stem cell research in the state. Despite wide-spread support for stem cell research in the state, and despite a similar measure passing in California a few years back, voters rejected the measure. This quote from a political consultant for the pro-funding side sums it up well:

Mr. Oster said that although polls conducted in July, shortly after Mr. Corzine signed legislation placing the measure on the ballot, showed that nearly 7 in 10 New Jersey residents supported the research, organizers in favor of the bill also noted than barely 4 in 10 supported using state money to pay for it.

Newsflash to the GOP (and to politicans of all stripes) - Real People understand the need for financial restraint. They don't want their money wasted when there are private solutions available.

Statists would like us to believe that if the government, particularly the federal government, does not fund stem cell research then no one will. Research by the Reason Foundation from a couple years ago shows that is not true.

Already there is nearly $4 billion in private and state monies committed to stem-cell research over the next decade, with another three-quarters of a billion dollars under active consideration.

That's some real money. My guess is that money is going to be used more judiciously and have more results demanded of it than government money will, and that means cures sooner.

Principles matter

From the Politico, the People magazine of politics:

Only 36 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the GOP "does an excellent or good job" of "standing up for traditional GOP positions" on issues like reducing the size of government, cutting taxes, and promoting conservative social issues.

That's a decline of 25 points since July 2004. In fact, it's the lowest Republican rating for the GOP since Pew began tracking the issue in 2000.

If it turns out to be a subway race between Giuliani and Clinton, Pew further found that two-thirds of Republicans say their vote for the Republican would be more accurately described as a vote "against Clinton" and "not for Giuliani."

Principles matter. Poll after poll after poll - for three years now - is telling the Republican party leadership they need to fix their tune on solid conservative principles and yet they continue to defy that. If they don't get with it, why shouldn't they get their clocks cleaned next year?